I would put money on the thermostat as a first culprit. Water pumps usually fail in a leaking state rather than in a "not pumping water" state. In the current weather, there will be little harm in running without a thermostat to test it (or even longer if you want to). The thermostat is usually in a housing at the end of the top radiator hose. Unbolt the housing, pull the thermostat, make a new housing gasket out of a cereal packet and take a drive out.
If it works, go buy a new thermostat and gasket at your leisure.
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